fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts10 marca 2023
They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. It's easy. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. The Supreme Court Not So Much. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Transcripts by Erin Wade. Edit your transcribed text. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. 266, the . During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. send a tweet. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre 01:00 PM. Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. RSS Loading. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. Saturday, February 25, 2023. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. david senak now. Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. They consider how much. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. Release date: 24 June 2015 Show more Happy holidays! It's a busy week! The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Accuracy is not guaranteed. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. In the main event, former light
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