2016 bellwether counties10 marca 2023
2016 bellwether counties

Trump gave them hope. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Nobody forgot about politics.". Suggest an improvement, report an issue, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Read about our approach to external linking. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. (subject to censorship). hide caption. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Voter Demographics (9). But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? our Gitlab account where you can Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). This county voted with the popular vote each time. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Subscribe to breaking updates As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Jeff. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. What science tells us about the afterlife. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. These are the bellwether counties. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Still, the state's worth watching. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county.

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